Pakistan may use nuclear weapons against India if India goes for a large scale military assault against it in retaliation of a major terror attack emanating from across the border, two top American experts have warned US lawmakers. The presence of a strong government in New Delhi and the pressure on it from Indian citizens in the event of a repeat of 26/11 type terror attack, the ties between the two neighbours will have greater danger of escalating towards a devastating nuclear warfare, particularly from the Pakistan side. India has already pledged with no first use.
Such a dangerous scenario can only be avoided by the US by working with Islamabad to ensure that there is no further large scale terror attack on India emanating from Pakistan side. "South Asia is the most likely place from where nuclear weapons could be detonated in the foreseeable future. This risk derives from the unusual dynamic of the India-Pakistan competition," said Perkovich, vice president for Studies Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The next major terrorist attack in India, emanating from Pakistan, may trigger an Indian conventional military riposte that could in turn prompt Pakistan to use battlefield nuclear weapons to repel an Indian incursion. India, for its part, has declared that it would inflict massive retaliation in response to any nuclear use against its territory or troops," he said.
"Obviously, this threatening dynamic - whereby terrorism may prompt conventional conflict which may prompt nuclear war - challenges Indian and Pakistan policy-makers. India and Pakistan both tend to downplay or dismiss the potential for escalation, but our own history of close nuclear calls should make US officials more alert to these dangers. The US is the only outside power that could intervene diplomatically and forcefully to de-escalate a crisis," Perkovich said.
By Premji